This season was supposed to be a write off for the Philadelphia Phillies. While it is only the seventh week of the season, the Phillies are sitting at 22-17 and are only 1.5 games out of first place despite having the third youngest roster in all of baseball (27.8 years old). With the entire team playing well, Odubel Herrera is certainly doing his part to keep his squad in contention.

Out of seemingly nowhere, Herrera is looking like one of the most productive leadoff hitters this season slashing .343/.453/.471. Much of this has to do with his much improved plate discipline. He walked for the 28th time on Sunday, matching his total from all of 2015. Keep in mind that he has drawn 29 walks this season with just 162 plate appearances. Now, compare that to his 28 walks in 495 plate appearances from last year and the plate appearance difference is eye-popping. When looked at in terms of walk percentage (BB%), that is a 11.9 percent difference in just one season.

The 2015 Rule-5 pick has always been able to hit, sporting a .307 career average through all levels. While the plate discipline may seem like Herrera’s newest weapon, he did show flashes of an advanced knowledge of the strike zone at A+. In 2014 and 2015, the center fielder held a 13.9 percent BB% and 16.8 percent BB%, respectively. While he only held a 5.2 percent BB% in 2015, Herrera’s first season in the majors, he showed he belonged slashing .297/.344/.418.

Now, does drawing more walks explain all of Herrera’s new found success? Probably not, but an increased walk rate combined with an elevated batting average on balls in play (BABIP) will sure up a fantasy breakout. Normally, an inflated BABIP means a player is due for regression. The average among major league hitters lies at about .300. Through the first 39 games this season, Herrera currently owns a .400 BABIP which is way over the league average. However, the 24 year old was able to maintain a .387 BABIP over 147 games in his rookie year. While the .400 BABIP is nearly impossible to keep up, Herrera has shown the ability to maintain an inflated BABIP over the course of a full season. Keep in mind that Herrera has only logged 707 career plate appearances for statistical purposes.

Currently, Herrera is the tenth ranked outfielder on ESPN’s Player Rater and Yahoo’s fourteenth outfielder. While it may be a little too late to add him in leagues, owners should hold on to their stocks of the young outfielder. He owns a .404 weighted on base average (wOBA) which accounts for a more accurate look at his offensive skill set rather than just examining a slash line.

I believe Herrera can slot in as a top-20 fantasy outfielder at season’s end. Everything he has done the past season and a quarter seem to be legitimate. He may not be the tenth or fourteenth ranked outfielder at the end of the season, but I could see his name in the eighteenth, nineteenth, or twentieth slot. While he may not be able to quite make it to these numbers, Herrera could be comparable to A.J. Pollock’s 100 plus runs and 20 plus steals from Pollock’s majestic 2015 campaign.

– #TheSkybox –