If you play fantasy baseball on ESPN, you have heard of the player rater. It provides fantasy mangers with the ability to view the 898 Major League Baseball players who have made their way onto a field in the first month of the 2016 season. I will take the time here to say that I am not a statistics expert, nor do I have any actual knowledge of how ESPN calculates their player rater formula. ESPN, as a corporation, does a pretty good job at keeping these kinds of things on lock. This article, essentially, is my thoughts on the player rater and its hits and misses.

It is to my understanding that ESPN uses standard deviation when developing their player rater “scores”, which is how individual players are then ranked. In order to do this, ESPN finds the MLB average for each of the five basic statistical categories. For hitters, AVG, HR, RBI, R and SB. For pitchers, ERA, WHIP, W, SV, K. Individual players are then scored on how far they deviate from the average of each category. The sum of the five deviations are added together and just like magic, you have a a player rater score.

For this discussion, I will only be looking at ESPN’s player rater for position players. Let’s get onto the good stuff.

Today is May 4, and Jose Altuve holds the number one spot on the player rater with a score of 13.05. While the five-tool second basemen is having a fantastic start to the 2016 season, I believe his stolen base total is skewing his player rater score. The argument is certainly there for other guys that have also put together great starts to their respective seasons; i.e. Bryce Harper (10.26 player rater score) and Nolan Arenado (10.98 player rater score). With Harper just getting out of his cold stretch this afternoon (2/4, HR, 2 RBIs), it’s certainly tough not to put Arenado in that top spot. The slugging third basemen owns the highest individual point total for position players in standard head-to-head points leagues on ESPN (117 points).

Currently, Altuve has the major league lead with 10 stolen bases. Last season, he was one of just seven players to steal at least 30 bags. It could be said right now that the MLB is going through a bit of a steals drought as of late, effectively making the stat more valuable in terms of fantasy. According to ESPN’s player rater, Altuve’s steals deviate a total of 5.86 from the MLB average. This total is the greatest deviation of any stat tracked on the player rater.

My argument here is not that Altuve does not deserve the number one spot, simply his stolen base total makes it easier for him to obtain that spot. Because few players posses the ability to swipe bags like Altuve can, his elite hitting skills make him a true five category contributor.

Let’s turn our attention now to the guy that, in my opinion, is the best fantasy baseball player right now. Arenado deviates higher than Altuve in AVG, HR and RBI while staying just 0.17 behind in runs. Obviously Arenado cannot hold a candle to Altuve’s stolen base total, but locking up home runs and RBIs is just so important early in drafts. However, unlike stolen bases, stats like home runs, RBIs, runs and average are quite prevalent throughout the league. ESPN’s player rater, in theory, underrates these counting stats when compared to stolen bases.

Arenado is slashing a ridiculous .314/.381/.676 through the first month of the season. Knowing the young third basemen plays half of his games in Coors Field really gives him an advantage that other players do not have. Although his line dips a bit on the road, he is still slashing .273/.322/.545. On top of his stats from this year, 2015 and the second half of 2014, there is no need to worry about Arenado’s consistency.

If I were forced to rank the top three position players in fantasy, it would go something to the tune of Arenado, Harper and Altuve. While Altuve is a special player in his own right, his stolen base total is forcing ESPN’s player rater to rank him higher than both Arenado and Harper when looking at position players.

#theskybox